Absolutely. There are a few reasons for this. One is that politicians who are never challenged have no reason to be responsive to their constituents. If your Republican state rep never has a challenge, why would they listen when their offices get flooded with messages about an issue they are going to vote on? If you call your Rep in Washington about Obamacare, but they haven’t been contested in a decade, why would they listen to you instead of lobbists. Simply having another name on the ballot can make them more responsive and more likely to hold public events.

 

Sometimes the unexpected happens and a seat that was previously considered unwinnable suddenly is competitive. Scandal, a sudden resignation or illness, a surprise primary loss, or a “Macaca” moment can all turn a race around overnight. Sometimes it isn’t even your opponent who has to have a scandal to affect your race. In 2006 Republican Mark Foley was caught sending explicit texts to congressional pages, and overnight dozens more races across the country became competitive. But remember, you can’t vote someone out of office who has no opponent.

 

Another important thing to remember is that people vote less solidly partisan in local races. Most people can’t name their state rep or county commissioner. If you go to someone’s door and personally ask them for their vote, they may well give it to you, even if you aren’t of their party. It varies greatly by state, but often just a few thousand extra votes can win a local race.

 

A 2013 paper showed that all politicians, though especially conservatives, overestimated how conservative their districts were. I’ve personally canvassed a street where 3 people living on the same block told me they were the only Democrats in the neighborhood. You may have far more support than you think.